NFL 2026
POWER RATINGS
MODEL ATS: 54.3%
BRIER: 0.2284
K-FACTOR: 0.2124
WEEK 0 BASELINE · MAY 2026
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HOW RATINGS ARE BUILT
SYSTEM 1
ELO RATINGS
Classic Elo system adapted for NFL. Teams gain and lose points based on game outcomes vs expected outcomes. K-factor of 0.2124 — corrected from initial 0.07215 after Phase 0 calibration.
SYSTEM 2
nFELO
Football-specific Elo variant accounting for margin of victory, home field advantage, and rest advantage. Provides a second independent rating that crosschecks the base Elo output.
OUTPUT
COMPOSITE RATING
The final Power Rating is a calibrated composite of both systems. Home field advantage adds 2.5–3.4 points depending on team. Offseason adjustments ±1–2 points only. Applied August after preseason.